Frustrated With Economic Forecasts

It is easy to bash economists for getting forecasts wrong, but what other group does better with its forecasts of how people will behave.

From Canada:

Toronto — Alan Greenspan’s statement that the best minds at the Federal Reserve – including his own – could not have predicted the explosion of subprime lending speaks more to the quality of the minds at the Fed than it does to the predictability of the subprime mess.

What is it about the predictability of lending money to people who either do not have the means or the will to pay it back that is so hard to understand?

I have a one-liner I no longer use: “If all the meteorologists and economists changed jobs, would anybody notice?” I no longer use it because it is too insulting to meteorologists.

About Luke Ford

Raised a Seventh-Day Adventist at Avondale College in Australia, Luke Ford moved to California in 1977. He graduated from Placer High School in 1984, reported the news at KAHI/KHYL radio for three years, attended Sierra College and UCLA, was largely bedridden by Chronic Fatigue Syndrome for six years, and converted to Judaism in 1993. From 1997-2007, Luke made his living from blogging. Living by Beverly Hills (, he now teaches the Alexander Technique (moving the way the body likes to move). Lessons cost $100 each and last about 45 minutes. In 2011, Luke completed a three-year teaching course at the Alexander Training Institute of Los Angeles. His personal Alexander Technique website is Luke is the author of five books, including: » The Producers: Profiles in Frustration » Yesterday’s News Tomorrow: Inside American Jewish Journalism
This entry was posted in economics and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.